According to @business, global finance chiefs concluded talks acknowledging entrenched risks to the global economy from escalating trade tensions, geopolitical mistrust, and AI euphoria. According to @business, officials were urged to keep calm as trade-war pressures intensified, underscoring that these risks are persistent rather than transitory. Based on @business's reporting, this entrenched macro-risk backdrop remains a key context for positioning, hedging, and liquidity management across risk assets.

According to @CNBC, strong US bank earnings are overshadowing an escalating trade war in the latest Daily Open update dated Oct 16, 2025, framing the dominant risk sentiment for traders. According to IMF research published in 2022, crypto and equity returns became highly correlated after 2020, a linkage traders track when earnings drive risk appetite and can spill over to BTC and ETH intraday flows. According to the BIS 2022 Annual Economic Report, Bitcoin tends to behave like a risk asset during risk-off episodes, making trade-war headlines a key factor in managing BTC and ETH exposure and stop-loss placement.

According to the source, BTC outperformed ETH over the weekend as tit-for-tat tariffs and trade headlines stoked economic concerns, testing a months-long trend in their relative performance, source: X post dated Oct 14, 2025.

According to the source, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market declined following renewed tariff and trade threats from Donald Trump, triggering headline-driven volatility across BTC and major altcoins; source: X post dated Oct 10, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, at 10:57 AM ET former President Trump posted that a massive increase in tariffs on China is coming, and by 11:00 AM ET the S&P 500 had already erased roughly $700 billion in market capitalization, indicating an immediate risk-off shock in equities; source: The Kobeissi Letter tweet dated Oct 10, 2025. Given documented post-2020 tightening of equity–crypto correlations, such equity selloffs can transmit to digital assets, making spillover risk to BTC and ETH a key watch for traders; source: IMF analysis on stronger Bitcoin–S&P 500 correlation and spillovers since the pandemic, 2022. Actionably, traders should monitor BTC and ETH price action alongside U.S. session volatility gauges and USD strength for confirmation of cross-asset risk sentiment following the tariff headline shock; source: IMF 2022 evidence of equity–crypto spillovers.

According to @GracyBitget, Bitcoin’s price is currently driven by macro factors including rate-cut expectations, trade war developments, AI/tech progress or bubble risk, and the implementation of crypto-friendly policies. source: @GracyBitget on X, Sep 21, 2025. She states the traditional four-year cycle has weakened, with a potential medium-term high in November 2025, while both current levels and that prospective high are likely to be relatively low when viewed over the next five years. source: @GracyBitget on X, Sep 21, 2025. She also notes the blockchain sector remains early and close to capital, with strong demand for talent in public chain and ZK engineering, crypto financial products and venture strategy, and GameFi/NFT application design. source: @GracyBitget on X, Sep 21, 2025.

According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the $120,000 level as the ongoing trade war sees another extension, creating new trading opportunities. Despite it being the weekend, current market movements indicate a potential upward trend as traders appear ready to push prices higher. This price action highlights renewed momentum for BTC and could influence broader cryptocurrency trading strategies. Source: Michaël van de Poppe.

According to @StockMKTNewz, bets on a 2025 U.S. recession have fallen sharply, with odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket dropping to 22%, the lowest since late February. This decline from a high of 66% in April is attributed to easing trade tensions, particularly after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at finalizing trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline, as reported by Reuters. The improved macroeconomic outlook has fueled a rally in cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining over 1% to briefly top $109,000. Other major assets also rose, with XRP and Solana (SOL) gaining over 2% each, and Dogecoin (DOGE) increasing by 3%, indicating a renewed risk-on sentiment among traders.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Bitcoin's (BTC) price reversed its weekend gains on Monday, slipping below $108,000 as renewed trade war fears impacted investor sentiment. The downturn followed President Trump's move to impose 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea effective August 1 and threats of further levies against countries aligned with BRICS, as stated by the White House. This negative pressure erased a brief rally over the weekend, where BTC had topped $109,000 on hopes of imminent trade deals hinted at by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The broader crypto market also saw declines, with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) down, although XRP showed relative strength with a gain. The price action reflects the crypto market's sensitivity to macroeconomic policies, mirroring losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

According to @StockMKTNewz, odds for a U.S. recession in 2025 have fallen sharply to just 22% on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, marking the lowest level since late February. This decline in recession fears is attributed to easing U.S. trade tensions, particularly after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at finalizing trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline. The improved macroeconomic outlook has fueled a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin (BTC) gaining over 1% to trade above $108,000. Other major cryptocurrencies also saw gains, with XRP and Solana (SOL) rising over 2%, and Dogecoin (DOGE) increasing by 3%. This represents a significant reversal from earlier this year when recession odds on Polymarket peaked at 66% following tariff announcements and warnings from financial institutions.

According to Pentoshi on Twitter, the latest US CPI data came in 'ice cold', signaling lower-than-expected inflation. This development, combined with record tariff revenues and US stock markets reaching all-time highs, reflects the country's strong performance in trade wars and rare mineral deals (Source: @Pentosh1, June 11, 2025). For crypto traders, historically low inflation and robust economic indicators can drive risk-on sentiment, potentially boosting BTC and ETH prices. Additionally, increased US economic leverage from tariffs and rare mineral agreements may strengthen the dollar, influencing global capital flows into digital assets.

According to Fox News, @realDonaldTrump has announced that a new trade deal with China is finalized, pending final approval by himself and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This development is expected to reduce trade tensions, which historically correlates with increased investor risk appetite and could drive higher volatility in cryptocurrency markets such as BTC and ETH. Traders should closely monitor the approval process and subsequent market reaction, as a finalized deal may strengthen the US dollar and impact crypto price action. (Source: Fox News on Twitter, June 11, 2025)

According to @StockMKTNewz, President Trump stated that the US-China trade deal is completed pending final approval from both leaders, with the US imposing 55% tariffs and China imposing 10% tariffs. This announcement signals increased trade tensions, which may drive volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets as traders seek alternative assets like BTC and ETH for risk hedging. Market participants should monitor potential capital flows into crypto as traditional equities face uncertainty. (Source: @StockMKTNewz, June 11, 2025)

According to Fox News, the Trump administration achieved a legal victory as an appeals court paused a lower court decision that had blocked contested tariffs. This move reinstates the tariffs, which could increase market volatility and influence safe-haven demand, including for cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH. Traders should monitor potential shifts in global trade sentiment and risk appetite, as renewed trade tensions historically impact crypto trading volumes and price action. Source: Fox News (June 11, 2025).

According to Fox News, President Donald Trump has announced a significant increase in tariffs on all foreign steel, raising them from 25% to 50% to further protect the U.S. steel industry (Source: Fox News, May 30, 2025). This move is expected to increase volatility in commodity and manufacturing stocks, while also potentially driving capital flows into alternative assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as investors seek hedges against increased trade tensions and inflationary pressure. Traders should monitor steel-related equities and closely watch movements in major cryptocurrencies following this policy shift.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump expressed strong approval of the newly imposed 50% tariff on the European Union, stating he was 'extremely satisfied' with the measure and urging the EU to open up for trade with the US (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 27, 2025). This significant escalation in trade tensions is expected to heighten volatility across global markets, with analysts anticipating potential risk-off sentiment in equities and increased demand for cryptocurrencies as alternative assets. Traders should monitor for short-term price swings in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as historical trends indicate crypto often rallies during heightened global trade uncertainty.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the trade war has resurfaced as Trump threatened 50% tariffs on the European Union, a development that could significantly impact global equity and cryptocurrency markets by increasing volatility and risk-off sentiment (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 25, 2025). This geopolitical escalation may lead to heightened market uncertainty, prompting traders to adjust their portfolios towards defensive assets, including select cryptocurrencies known for their safe-haven appeal. Historically, such macroeconomic tensions have resulted in capital flows into Bitcoin and stablecoins as investors seek to hedge against fiat currency risks and potential stock market drawdowns. Close monitoring of cross-asset correlations and volatility indices is recommended for crypto traders in response to ongoing tariff developments.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, as the US-China trade war intensified, former President Trump expected Fed Chair Powell to lower interest rates to ease bond market pressure while tariffs increased. However, the Federal Reserve has been reluctant to cut rates, resulting in rising bond yields. This shift has forced Trump to reconsider his economic strategy. For crypto traders, the rising yields and lack of monetary stimulus increase market uncertainty and can lead to higher volatility for Bitcoin and altcoins as investors seek alternative assets amid traditional market stress (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, recent weeks have seen bond yields rise despite the usual 'trade deal' headlines, due to a shift in market sentiment with lower recession fears and heightened inflation expectations. This breakdown in typical market responses suggests that trade war tensions are resurfacing, which has historically driven volatility across global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor yield movements and trade war developments closely, as these factors can trigger liquidity shifts and risk-off sentiment in the crypto sector (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 23, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the resurgence of the trade war should not come as a surprise to traders who monitor the bond market closely, as it provides key leading indicators for macroeconomic shifts impacting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Bond yield movements often precede volatility in equities and crypto markets, signaling risk-off sentiment and potential capital flow changes (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 23, 2025). Crypto traders should track bond market trends as they can anticipate increased market turbulence, USD strength, and liquidity shifts, all of which are highly relevant for Bitcoin and altcoin price action.